Analisa Saham APLN dan BTPN

APLN Weekly : Trading Buy

Berdasarkan Peak and Trough Analysis terlihat support saat ini relatif kuat di 185 denga potensi kenaikkan terdekat ke 214.  Volume transaksi terbanyak saat ini baik sisi demand  (242-246) maupun supply (236-246) masih berada diatas harg saat ini demikian juga net avg buy all broker and dominant ( 210-218) serta  net avg sell all broker and dominnat ( 236-246) yang juga diatas harga saat ini. Jadi secara umum harga relatif sudah terdiscount.
by Tasrul Tanar

Bank BTPN (BTPN IJ): U/G To BUY: Bigger And Stronger Post Merger

Upgrade to BUY from Neutral with unchanged IDR4,200 TP, 22% upside. Bank BTPN recently reported its 2Q19 results, with earnings growing 35% YoY to IDR751bn, bringing 1H19 net profit to IDR1.2trn (+15% YoY) – achieving 50% and 57% of RHB and Street estimates. Interest income grew 41% YoY, while interest expense rose 105% YoY, factoring in Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Indonesia’s (SMBCI) loans and deposits. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking’s (SMBC) deadline to increase the float to the 7.5% minimum is nearing. Kontan reported SMBC will do the re-float as early as next week.
Shift in new NIM paradigm. Since BTPN and SMBCI merged last year, NIM has been contracting on the business mix shift, despite loan growth accelerating due to the merger. Consequently, NII grew 13.3% YoY in 2Q19 due to a significant growth in outstanding loans (+111.5% YoY). However, this strong growth was offset by lower yield loans from SMBC and higher cost of funds from its deposits. NIM declined to just 6.7% from 11.5% last year. We believe lower NIM will be the new normal for BTPN going forward.

Expect better non-II Income in future. As the bank transforms into a new organisation, we expect the non-II income portion to be better than what it was pre-merger. As written in its business plan, the new merged entity will also focus on other businesses, eg transaction banking, and holistic supply chain financing for small & medium enterprise (SME) and corporate banking. In our view, we forecast non-II income at c.20% of BTPN’s operating income, much better than the 4-5% portion previously. This is because the new BTPN will be able to tap more customers, rather than micro and SME accounts only.
Revamped business segment post-merger. We expect composition will be dominated more by the corporate segment – from SMBCI – at c.48%, in addition to the pension business, SMEs, and micro lending from BTPS, as well as its own units. We also expect better asset quality from the new entity due to SMBC’s low NPL ratio (c.0.1%), which brings BTPN’s NPL ratio to 0.8% from 1.1% last year. We also expect CIR to improve later, as it is relatively not optimal currently: BTPN (54%) and SMBC (75%), and this is reflected to a combined 68% in 2Q19. We have increased earnings 47%, 52%, and 70% in FY19F-21F, adjusting for the merged entity’s business structure.
Re-floating soon, as early as next week likely. After the 97.3% stake acquisition by SMBC, BTPN’s free float is currently 1.5% – the remaining 1.2% is owned by Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ, NEUTRAL, TP: IDR32,500 and Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ, BUY, TP: IDR11,500). SMBC was given six months to increase BTPN’s free float to the 7.5% minimum and, as reported by Kontan is planning to do so as early as next week. Note: SMBC last bought stake in BTPN in January – through a tender offer at IDR4,282/share.
Upgrade to BUY, as the stock is currently trading at an attractive 0.7x P/BV. Our TP is set at an undemanding 0.8x FY19-20F P/BV, just above -1SD of its 5-year mean. At the current price, it also trades at an attractive 38% discount to its SOTP value. We believe SMBC’s re-float will drive prices up in the near term, as it is unlikely that the latter will sell its remaining 6% ownership at a lower price than the IDR4,282/share buying price it paid just six months ago.
by Henry Wibowo, Ghibran Al Imran, Andre Benas – RHB Research